Through Rain Splattered Goggles at Churchill. "Turf & Dirt" Top 21 for 4.26.2011

Through the raindrops, the Derby picture is becoming clearer. Out are THE FACTOR and JP'S GUSTO... in are SHACKLEFORD and TWINSPIRED.
The entries basically boil down to earnings and defections. As for picking the favorites, that is still a very muddy picture.
Silver Medallion and Anthony's Cross are on the bubble. With the way this year is going, my guess is they get in.

In the "never trust a trainer' category, Uncle Mo took to the track this morning at 5:45, despite the announced 8:30 work time. Something just doesn't seem right with hiding a Derby colt in darkness from photographers and reporters.

Of those who took to the track, none looked better than SHACKLEFORD. He seems to now be in the Derby with enough earnings. This son of FORESTRY is steadily improving. He looks big and muscular and is training beautifully after running second in the Florida Derby, and 5th in the Fountain of Youth before that. 
I'm going to put him in the "Turf & Dirt Top 21" at #5. Very impressive looking colt!

Shackleford gallops at Churchill Downs. Photo: Matt Wooley/EquiSport Photos 1/800 @ f/3.5, iso 1000, 300mm, -1/3 EV

 ARCHARCHARCH was the best of the rest to gallop Tuesday. His question mark is distance. The ARCH colt nearly run down in the final strides of the Louisiana Derby by NEHRO. I'm going to put him in as T&D #4 this week.

 

Archarcharch at Churchill Downs 4.26.2011. Photo: Wendy Wooley/EquiSport Photos 1/1250 @f/4, iso 1600, 500mm

Rank HORSE (Sire)
1 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
2 NEHRO (Mineshaft)
3 TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road)
4 ARCHARCHARCH (Arch)
5 SHACKLEFORD (Forestry)
6 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
7 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
8 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (War Chant)
9 SOLDAT (War Front)
10 MASTER OF HOUNDS (Kingmambo)
11 PANTS ON FIRE (Jump Start)
12 ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimeaux)
13 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
14 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
15 COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie)
16 BRILLIANT SPEED (Dynaformer)
17 DECISIVE MOMENT (With Distinction)
18 TWICE THE APPEAL (Successful Appeal)
19 WATCH ME GO (West Acre)
20 TWINSPIRED (Harlan's Holiday)
21 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)

"A Derby Factor?" - Derby Top 25 for February 21st

The San Vicente raised more questions than it answered. The biggest.. can THE FACTOR go the distance? The War Front colt jumped out of the gate, set blazing fractions, and just outlasted a charging SWAY AWAY by a length.
Trainer Bob Baffert's 'go to' rider, Martin Garcia, said of The Factor after the race "I just let him break by himself. The more you fight, the more he’s going to take off. He doesn’t want to be behind horses, so I just let him be comfortable and he kept going. He is still learning."
The Factor, nearly collared by Sway Away at the wire, will have to rate off the pace if he's going to have enough gas to get the classic distance.

The Factor wins the San Vicente. Photo: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos 1/1000 sec @ f/3.5, iso 1000, 400mm

Was SWAY AWAY, who moved from dead last to nearly catch the winner at the wire, perhaps the more impressive? Another sixteenth would have changed the outcome of this 7 furlong test.

Sway Away (outside) nearly runs down The Factor. Photo: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos 1/500 @ f/3.5, iso 800, 300mm

Sway Away, trained by Jeff Bonde, seems to be one to watch. And the Afleet Alex colt should have no trouble with the classic distance.
“It’s heartbreaking to lose, but that’s the way the game goes. This horse is the best (Kentucky) Derby chance I’ve had in many years." said Bonde after the San Vicente.

Sway Away is certainly is going on my Top 25. A few spots in front of The Factor... for now.

MUCHO MACHO MAN finally prevailed, in his 4th stakes race, in the hard fought Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fairgrounds Saturday. After finishing 4th last time out in the Holy Bull, this well traveled son of Macho Again beat a quality field including second place SANTIVA, and third place ROGUE ROMANCE.

Mucho Macho Man. Photo: Joe Ganley/EquiSport Photos 1/1000 @ f/3.5, iso 800, 108mm.

Mucho Macho Man also finished second in both the Nashua S. and Remson S. as a two-year-old for trainer Kathy Ritvo. “He goes two miles like he’s out to jog. He’s just going to get better the further the distances get,” Ritvo said.

ARCHARCHARCH gritted out a tough win Monday in the Southwest Stakes, (G3) at Oaklawn Park, over a classy field. Highly respected JP'S GUSTO, the betting favorite, finished second in front of a fading ELITE ALEX.
Jon Court rode the winner for his father-in-law, William 'Jinks' Fires. Coming out of the turn into the short Oaklawn stretch, the Arch colt responded when asked, opening up a 2 1/2 length lead on the field.
JP's Gusto, ridden by Ramon Dominguez, got bottled up in the turn. “At the quarter pole, when I wanted to move, there were horses around me and I couldn't get out," Dominguez said.  


This Week's TOP 25 DERBY TRAIL

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
3 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
4 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
5 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
6 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
7 JAYCITO (Victory Gallop)
8 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
9 SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex)
10 ARCHARCHARCH (Arch)
11 WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid)
12 SOLDAT (War Front)
13 RIVETING REASON (Fusaichi Pegasus)
14 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
15 THE FACTOR (War Front)
16 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
17 ASTROLOGY (AP Indy)
18 TIZ BLESSED (Tiznow)
19 ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex)
20 ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie)
21 SHACKLEFORD (Forestry)
22 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)
23 GOURMET DINNER (Trippi)
24 SWEET DUCKY (Pulpit)
25 TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road)


That's it for now.. mw