Next 3 Weeks...The Real Deals vs. The Also Rans

The next 3 weeks will sort out the Real Deals from the Also Rans.
This week my picks (in order); the Rebel (Old Fashioned), Louisiana Derby (Friesan Fire, Patena, Papa Clem, Flying Pegasus), Tampa Bay Derby (General Quarters, Hello Broadway) and San Felipe (Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy).
Next week my picks (in order); Lane's End Cup (West Side Bernie)
Two weeks my picks (in order); the Florida Derby (Quality Road, Dunkirk, Beethoven, Theregoesjojo), UAE Derby (Desert Party, Vineyard Haven)
No guarantees expressed or implied.

"The Word" - Derby 2009 Contenders March 10, 2009 www.equisportphotos.com
Horse Sire Trainer Owner Jockey Next
1 OLD FASHIONED Unbridled's Song Larry Jones Rick Porter Ramon Dominguez 3/14 OP Rebel S.
2 PIONEEROF THE NILE Empire Maker Bob Baffert Zayat Stables Garrett Gomez 3/14 SA San Felipe S. (G2)
3 QUALITY ROAD Elusive Quality James Jerkins Edward Evans John Velazquez 3/28 GP Florida Derby
4 I WANT REVENGE Stephen Got Even Jeff Mullins Lanzman Racing Joe Talamo 4/4 AQ Wood Memorial (G1)
5 FRIESAN FIRE AP Indy Larry Jones Vinery & Fox Hill Gabriel Saez 3/14 FG Louisiana Derby (G2)
6 THE PAMPLEMOUSSE Kafwain Julio Canani Bienstock & Winner Stable, A. Solis II Alex Solis 4/4 SA Santa Anita Derby
7 IMPERIAL COUNCIL Empire Maker Shug McGaughey Sequoia Racing Rajiv Maragh 4/4 AQ Wood Memorial (G1)
8 PATENA Seeking the Gold Rick Dutrow IEAH, Sikura Robby Albarado 3/14 FG Louisiana Derby (G2)
9 DUNKIRK Unbridled's Song Todd Pletcher Magnier, Tabor, Smith Garrett Gomez 3/28 GP Florida Derby
10 BEETHOVEN Sky Mesa John Ward John Oxley Calvin Borel 3/28 GP Florida Derby
11 GENERAL QUARTERS Sky Mesa Mark Miller Thomas McCarthy James Lopez 3/14 TB Tampa bay Derby
12 PAPA CLEM Smart Strike Bo Hirsh Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 3/14 FG Louisiana Derby (G2)
13 THEREGOESJOJO Brahms Kenny McPeek Samotowka, Delfiner, Drall, Magdalena Kent Desormeaux 3/28 GP Florida Derby
14 FLYING PEGASUS Fusaichi Pegasus Ralph Nicks James Spence Cornelio Velasquez 3/14 FG Louisiana Derby (G2)
15 GIANT OAK Giant's Causeway Chris Block Virginia Tarra Trust E. Razo La. Derby or Rebel
16 CHOCOLATE CANDY Candy Ride Jerry Hollendorfer Jenny Craig Rafael Bejarano 3/14 SA San Felipe S. (G2)
17 HELLO BROADWAY Broken Vow Barclay Tagg Elizabeth Valando Edgar Prado 3/14 TB Tampa bay Derby
18 CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN Candy Ride Ian Wilkes Jos. Rauch, David Zell Julien Leparoux
19 DESERT PARTY Street Cry Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin Racing Frankie Dettori 3/28 NAS UAE Derby
20 VINEYARD HAVEN Lido Palace Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin Racing Edgar Prado 3/28 NAS UAE Derby
21 WEST SIDE BERNIE Bernstein Kelly Breen Lori & Goerge Hall Elvis Trujillo 3/21 Lne's End or 3/28 Fl Dby
22 SQUARE EDDIE Smart Strike Doug O'Neill Paul Reddam Rafael Bejarano injured

A Pamplemousse?..#10 this week in "The Word", Top 25 Derby Horses w/connectio

The Pamplemousse makes a debut at #10 this week after a nice win in the San Rafael.
Square Eddie not the best horse? Does he need dirt?
Chocolate Candy wins the Cal Derby. Against who?
Patena continues to train well after a 2nd in the Lecomte.
Taqarub wins 3rd in a row with 8+ win in minor Stakes.
Stardom Bound in the Derby? Count on it with IEAH.

"The Word" - Derby 2009 Contenders 1.20.2009
Horse Sire Trainer Owner Jockey Next
1 Old Fashioned Unbridled's Song Larry Jones Rick Porter Ramon Dominguez 2/16 OP Southwest S.
2 Beethoven Sky Mesa John Ward John Oxley Calvin Borel 1/31 GP Holy Bull S.
3 PioneeroftheNile Empire Maker Bob Baffert Zayat Stables Garrett Gomez 2/7 SA Robt. Lewis
4 Square Eddie Smart Strike Doug O'Neill Paul Reddam Rafael Bejarano
5 Big Drama Montbrook David Fawkes Harold Queen Eibar Coa 1/31 GP Holy Bull S.
6 Stardom Bound Tapit Rick Dutrow IEAH Mike Smith 2/7 SA in Las Virgenes
7 Midshipman Unbridled's Song Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin Racing Garrett Gomez in Dubai
8 Vineyard Haven Lido Palace Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin Racing Edgar Prado in Dubai
9 Notonthesamepage Catienus Wesley Ward Ken & Sarah Ramsey Elvis Trujillo 2/28 GP Fountain of Youth
10 The Pamplemousse Kafwain Julio Canani Bienstock & Winner Stable, A. Solis II Alex Solis at Santa Anita
11 Friesan Fire AP Indy Larry Jones Vinery & Fox Hill Gabriel Saez 2/7 FG Risen Star
12 Haynesfield Speightstown Steve Asmussen Harvey Weinstein Ramon Dominguez
13 I Want Revenge Stephen Got Even Jeff Mullins Lanzman Racing Joe Talamo in Dubai
14 Chocolate Candy Candy Ride Jerry Hollendorfer Jenny Craig Rafael Bejarano 2/14 SA El Camino Real
15 Donativum (GB) Cadeaux Genereux John H. M. Gosden Princess Haya of Jordan Frankie Dettori
16 Patena Seeking the Gold Josie John Sikura, D. Dilalla Robby Albarado
17 Giant Oak Giant's Causeway Chris Block Virginia Tarra Trust E. Razo at Fairgrounds
18 Capt. Candyman Can Candy Ride Ian Wilkes Jos. Rauch, David Zell Julien Leparoux at Palm Meadows
19 Coronet of a Baron Pure Prize Eoin Harty Darley Alan Garcia
20 Break Water Edison Lemon Drop Kid John Kimmel Eli Gindi Alan Garcia at Payson Park
21 West Side Bernie Bernstein Kelly Breen Lori & Goerge Hall Elvis Trujillo 1/31 GP Holy Bull S.
22 Well Positioned Awesome Again Pat Reynolds Paul Pompa Javier Castellano at Gulfstream Park
23 Charitable Man Lemon Drop Kid Kiaran McLaughlin W. K. Warren Jr Alan Garcia at Palm Meadows, recovering
24 Taqarub Aldebaran Kiaran McLaughlin Shadwell Alan Garcia
25 Munnings Speightstown Todd Pletcher Tabor, Magnier, Smith John Velazquez

On the "Also Ran" List
Cribnote
Flat Out
Danger to Society
Brother Keith
Stimulus Plan
Free Country
Theregoesjojo

Cheers, MW

R.I.P. 'Go Between'...

Go Between, Miguel Mena up, red cap, wins the Fayette Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. 10.27.2007mw (Horse Racing Photo: EquiSport Photos)

Ky. Derby Trail 1.04.2009 "The Word"

Old Fashioned (Unbridled's Song), Ramon Dominguez up, wins the Remson S. (G2) at Aqueduct 11.29.2008db ( Horse Racing Photos by EquiSport Photos/Dianne Boothe )

Here's the rundown as I see it, in order. Purely speculative and unscientific. Neither 'Pioneerof the Nile' nor 'Haynesfield' really impressed this time out, so their position is relatively unchanged.
The Lecomte is this weekend, and could bring some new contenders into the mix. Square Eddie runs back in the San Rafael S. Jan 17 at Santa Anita.
I'm starting to get a few pictures on the website... http://www.equisportphotos.com/gallery/6981546_RBDHb

Kentucky Derby Trail 1.04.2009
1 Old Fashioned
2 Square Eddie
3 Beethoven
4 Midshipman
5 Vineyard Haven
6 Donativum (GB)
7 Big Drama
8 PioneeroftheNile
9 Giant Oak
10 Haynesfield
11 Coronet of a Baron
12 Notonthesamepage
13 I Want Revenge
14 Capt. Candyman Can
15 West Side Bernie
16 Break Water Edison
17 Chocolate Candy
18 Well Positioned
19 Charitable Man
20 Munnings
21 Cribnote

Kentucky Oaks Trail 1.04.2009
1 Stardom Bound
2 Maram
3 Laragh
4 Four Gifts
5 Rachel Alexandra
6 C.S. Silk
7 Dream Empress

Goins Honored with Photography Eclipse

Lexington photographer Matt Goins has won the 2008 Media Eclipse Award for Photography for his picture “Frankie’s Flying Dismount” of jockey Frankie Dettori leaping off the 2-year-old Donativum in the winner’s circle following his victory in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita Park on Oct. 25. The photograph appeared in Al-Adiyat, the Dubai-based racing publication, on November 6.
Honorable mention is the photography category went to Alexander Barkoff, whose photo of a morning sunrise on the Fair Grounds backstretch was published in the New Orleans Times Picayune on Nov. 9, and to Matt Wooley, whose photo of Big Brown winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) appeared in Daily Racing Form on May 6.