Showing posts with label Aqueduct. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aqueduct. Show all posts

Sunday, March 6, 2011

"Dialed In - Disconnected"... Derby Top 21 for March 7th.

Wow! What was up with DIALED IN?
Okay, it was his first 2-turn, mile and an eighth race, and against older rivals.
But, Dialed In just couldn't get past the Equestrio, who took a hard right at the wire, drifting out 6 paths. And, Dialed In was getting 7 pounds from the winner, who happened to be his stablemate.
This is our #2 horse on the Kentucky Derby Trail? I don't think so.

Equestrio beats stablemate Dialed In. Photo: Joe Ganley/EquiSport Photos 1/1250th @ f/4, iso 1250, 200mm.
I'm still trying to figure out what Dialed In got out of this race. He rated last of 5 horses off of a pedestrian pace, got a ton of dirt kicked in his face, and just failed to fire when asked.

Trainer Nick Zito was obviously searching for positives, "The horse that beat him isn't a bad horse. It was two turns too; they were older horses; and there was no speed in the race." Zito continued,  "I would have liked to win, but I have to be happy. It was a mile and an eighth over the track. He made the mile and an eighth."
Okay great Nick... he finished the race.  Yet another Derby contender just dropped a few spots.

Julien Leparoux seems intent on seeing the Mineshaft colt through to the Derby.  "We got a trip, a good teaching trip, but there was no pace unfortunately," Leparoux said. "It's horse racing -- he's going to have horses next to him in the Derby, so he's got to learn that.
Hello Julien.... there were 5 horses in this race. You have horses next to you during training hours.


STAY THIRSTY seems to be the only horse staying on form over the past couple of months, and prevailed in the Gotham Stakes (G3) Saturday. I wouldn't call it a brilliant win, but the Bernardini colt has to move up the Derby Trail a few notches, if only because others are moving backwards.

Stay Thirsty wins the Gotham S. Photo: Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos 1/1000 @ f/2.8, iso 1600, 180mm
After breaking poorly, Ramon Dominguez guided Stay Thirsty in mid pack through easy fractions, before taking charge coming out of the turn. "I was very happy with him. He gave me whatever I asked him, and he galloped out very strong, too."

Owner Mike Repole now has 2 of the Top 5 ranked colts including Stay Thirsty's stablemate, Uncle Mo, as the #1 ranked horse. Never at a loss for words, Repole is happy for Stay Thirsty to have some time in the spotlight. "I couldn't be any happier for this horse, because I keep hearing about 'Mo's shadow' and 'stablemate' and this is one of the top six three-year-olds in the country," he said after the race. "Today is all about Stay Thirsty and I think he proved that when you get away from Boys At Tosconova and you get away from Uncle Mo, this is a pretty special horse.

MY COMMENTS... since you stopped by.
This 2 or 3 race training method of getting fresh horses to the Derby is NOT working for most. Everybody seems to be going backwards. Way too much emphasis is being placed on pedigree, 2YO stats, dosage, Beyer figs, hair style..... whatev! Give me a break.
Those who base a Derby contender list based on history and statistics are missing one key ingredient... experience. Horses with little to no 3YO experience are getting knocked off like flies.
If you're going to get in the gate with 19 other strapping young 3 year olds, you better have some battle field experience. Two races at 3 ain't enough experience.

To me, it seems that horses are moving DOWN the list his year, rather than anyone making a move up. No one is racing against strong fields. Last weeks' "also ran" sort of inherits a better spot in the Top 20, as this weeks' "golden boy" gets dusted.

Dialed in is a perfect example of a horse backing up. He was #2  on a lot of lists until now. Zito ran him today to dodge Uncle Mo, and lost in an Allowance Optional Claimer! Who has he beaten so far? Oh yeah... Sweet Ducky.
So now, he moves down the list, and a few "also rans" go past him.

The same could be said for Uncle Mo and Jaycito? They haven't run since last November, but they stay in the Top 5 because other horses get bumped. Jaycito finished 7th in the BC  4 months ago.. and he's 5th in the rankings? Really?
To Honor And Serve dropped to #8 after getting beat by an Allowance winner, Soldat.

This light training regimen (and losing) gives a little more credibility to a horse like Gourmet Dinner, for at least being battle tested. He had more than enough earnings from winning the flukish Delta Jackpot last year.  But, to his credit, he has not dodged the competition, running 3rd in the Holy Bull and 2nd in the Fountain of Youth. Give me a Gourmet Dinner any day over a Dialed In.

All that said, we have yet to see a break out performance like a Quality Road or an I Want Revenge. Maybe by April 3rd we'll finally see a horse race, in the Florida Derby.

"THE WORD" DERBY TOP 21 for 3.07.2011

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 SOLDAT (War Front)
3 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
4 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
5 GOURMET DINNER (Trippi)
6 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
7 JAYCITO (Victory Gallop)
8 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
9 ASTROLOGY (AP Indy)
10 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
11 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
12 SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex)
13 ARCHARCHARCH (Arch)
14 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
15 ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie)
16 TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road)
17 FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy)
18 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)
19 WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid)
20 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
21 SWEET DUCKY (Pulpit)

All for now... mw.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

"Up & Comers" on the Derby Trail

Happy Birthday to all of the Derby contenders! Everybody turned 3 on New Year's Day!
Okay, for that matter, all thoroughbreds had a birthday on January 1st.

The Kentucky Derby is still 4 months away, and now it's time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Already, a few runners are assured a spot in the starting gate for this May's "Run For The Roses" based on current earnings, but a few are just now making their presence known.
One promising now 3 year old, in particular, is certain to be a factor.

The Factor, Rafael Bejarano up, breaks his maiden at Santa Anita Park 12.26.2010. Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos
 A Bob Baffert trainee, "The Factor", may have made the biggest slash coming into the New Year. Running under the colors of part owner George Bolton, The Factor broke maiden at Santa Anita the day after Christmas in track record setting fashion. The son of War Front posted an eye popping 102 Beyer figure. Baffert said of the colt after the race, "He didn't even take a deep breath". 
Baffert admitted the colt's name was inspired by Bill O'Reilly's Fox News program.
Look for The Factor to move right into Stakes company to get started on the Derby Trail.

Another Up & Comer, To Honor and Serve, proved much the best in winning the Remson Stakes, November 27 at Aqueduct.

To Honor and Serve, John Velazquez up, wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct 11/27/10Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos
Trained by Bill Mott for Live Oak Plantation, the Bernardini colt came into this race off of a 4 length win in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes November 6th. Said Mott after the Remson, "I thought in the Nashua it looked like he won a little easier, but this was another eighth of a mile. Being in a two-turn race might have been slightly confusing to him. As with any horse like him, we’ll nominate him for everything in case there’s a hiccup anywhere.”

One more 3 year old to make note of is Brethren. A half brother to last year's Derby winner Super Saver,  the colt won an Allowance at Churchill in convincing fashion November 27th.

Brethren, Garrett Gomez up, wins an allowance at Churchill Downs 11.27.2010 Wendy Wooley/EquiSport Photos.
A son of Distorted Humor, and owned by Winstar Farm, Brethren coasted to an easy win under Garrett Gomez for trainer Todd Pletcher. “He came out of (the race) in excellent shape. I thought that was a big effort from him from an outside post,” Pletcher said. “He veered out a little bit at the start but was able to put himself in a good position and kicked on turning for home. All in all, I though it was a pretty impressive race.”

Here is the rest of the "Derby Word" for the New Year. A lot will shuffle between now and the first Saturday in May as the Real Contenders make themselves known.

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie)
3 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
4 BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (Officer)
5 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
6 JB'S THUNDER (Thunder Gulch)
7 THE FACTOR (War Front)
8 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
9 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
10 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)

And on the Distaff side, a look at the Oaks Fillies that have shown promise.

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 KATHMANBLU (Bluegrass Cat)
2 AWESOME FEATHER (Awesome of Course)
3 R HEAT LIGHTNING (Trippi)
4 MORE THAN REAL (More Than Ready)
5 TURBULENT DESCENT (Congrats)
6 WICKEDLY PERFECT (Congrats)
7 DELIGHTFUL MARY (Limehouse)
8 WINTER MEMORIES (El Prado)
9 A Z WARRIOR (Bernardini)
10 FASTATION (Valid Expectations)

More later... mw

Thursday, January 7, 2010

January Derby Trail Top 10















Buddy's Saint (Jose Lezcano up) wins the Remsen at Aqueduct. 11.28.2009 Credit: EquiSport Photos/Dianne Boothe


Okay, so it's January. And it's snowing here in Kentucky. The fact is that a few contenders have already surfaced in some early Derby preps.
Not the least impressive of which has been Buddy's Saint. From the only crop of the ill fated Saint Liam, the Bruce Levine charge has already captured two Grade 2 Stakes at Aqueduct. The colt won both the Nashua and the Remson in November, by a combined 16+ lengths! Now in training at Gulfstream Park for Owner Kingfield Stables, the Fountain of Youth Stakes will mark the 3 year-old debut for Buddy's Saint on February 20.

"The Word", My ranking of the 2010 Derby Contenders
"For recreational purposes only, not intended as a substitute for actual handicapping"
January 7, 2010 www.equisportphotos.com
Rank Horse Sire Trainer Jockey Owner Comment
1 SUPER SAVER, Maria's Mon, Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel, Winstar, 11/28 CD 1st in Ky. Jockey Club (G2).
2 VALE OF YORK, Invincible Spirit, Saeed by Suroor, Ahmed Ajtebi, Godolphin, 11/7 SA 1st in BC Juvenile (G1)
3 LOOKIN' AT LUCKY, Smart Strike, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, Pegram Watson Weitman, 12/19 HW 1st in Cash Call Futurity (G1), 11/7 SA 2nd in BC Juvenile (G1), 9/6 DM 1st in Del Mar Futurity (G1)
4 BUDDY'S SAINT, Saint Liam, Bruce Levine, Jose Lezcano, Kingfield Stables, 1/3 AQ 1st in Nashua (G2), 11/28 AQ 1st in Remson (G2).
5 RULE, Roman Ruler, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, Winstar, 12/4 FG 1st in Delta Jackpot (G3)
6 NOBLE'S PROMISE, Cuvee, Ken McPeek, Rafael Bejarano, Chasing Dreams Racing, 12/19 HW 2nd in Cash Call Futurity (G1), 10/10 KEE 1st in Breeder's Futurity (G1)
7 AMERICAN LION, Tiznow, Eoin Harty, Julien Leparoux, Winstar, 11/21 HW 1st in Hollywood Prevue (G3)
8 UH OH BANGO, Top Hit, Kory Owens, Glenn Corbett, Triple AAA Ranch (Richard Owens), 12/4 FG 2nd in Delta Jackpot (G3), 11/1 CD 2nd in Iroquois (G3)
9 TAKE CONTROL, AP Indy, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, Kaleem Shah, 1130 SA 1st in MSW
10 LAUS DEO, Medaglia d'Oro, Anthoney Dutrow, David Cohen, Rick Porter & Fox Hill Farm, 1/2 AQ 1st in Count Fleet (G3)