Zito has it Dialed In, "DERBY TOP 21" for 4.04.2011

Spotting the field 14 lengths going into the back stretch, DIALED IN proved this skeptic wrong by winning the Florida Derby in dramatic last-to-first fashion. The Mineshaft colt reeled in the frontrunners in the turn, and in what proved to be a well timed run, got up by a head over longshot SHACKLEFORD. DIALED IN moves up a spot to the "Top 21" #3.

Dialed In gets up over Shackleford, 4.03.2011. Photo: Joe Ganley?EquiSport Photos 1/1000 @ f/5.6, iso 1000, 85mm

Julien Leparoux rode the winner, letting him relax early. “It was a solid pace and that definitely helped. I just left him alone out of the gate and started to catch up around the second turn," Leparoux said afterwards. He went on to say Dialed In's previous race, a second place finish in an Allowance against older horses, was a good learning experience. "I think his last race really helped him today. I loved his last race. It was a very good learning race. He learned to run between horses and take dirt in his face, and it all paid off today,”

What was disappointing about Dialed In's performance? The last quarter was run in a pedestrian 13 4/5. So what appeared to be a nice run for the wire, was actually the rest of the field quitting. I would hardly call it a breakout performance. Still Dialed In moves forward only because, once again this year, everybody else is backing up.

Behind the top 2 in the Florida Derby, it was 6 lengths back to TO HONOR AND SERVE, who drops like a rock to "Top 21" #15.  It was 1 more back to FLASHPOINT who moves to "Top 21" #21 and still needs earnings. The biggest disappointment was Uncle Mo's stable mate STAY THIRSY , who tired for 7th place and tumbles down to "Top 21" #16.
You've got to include surprise runner-up SHACKLEFORD the Derby picture now. With $212,000, he currently sits at 19th on the earnings list. I'll put him in the "Top 21" at #11.

No one has impressed me more this year than PREMIER PEGASUS, with his eye popping performance in the San Felipe. He continues to train brilliantly towards the Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 9th. I'm going to give him the top spot this week "Top 21" at #1.

Premier Pegasus with Alonso Quinonez up, 4.02.2011. Photo: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos 1/1600 @ f/3.2 iso 640, 400mm

Myung Kwon Cho and son Raxon. Photo: AE/EquiSport

Trainer Myung Kwon Cho is hoping to add to Premier Pegasus' earnings with a strong showning in the Santa Anita Derby, he is currently #18.
Top competition will come from JAYCITO ("Top 21" #4), ANTHONY'S CROSS ("Top 21" #8) and SILVER MEDALLION ("Top 21" #12).







THE WORD,  "DERBY TOP 21" for 4.04.2011
(Performance and Earnings Based..... and maybe a Dash of Pedigree)

Rank HORSE (Sire)
1 PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus)
2 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
3 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
4 JAYCITO (Victory Gallop)
5 THE FACTOR (War Front)
6 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
7 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
8 ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie)
9 ASTROLOGY (AP Indy)
10 PANTS ON FIRE (Jump Start)
11 SHACKLEFORD (Forestry)
12 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)
13 ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimeaux)
14 SOLDAT (War Front)
15 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
16 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
17 TWICE THE APPEAL (Successful Appeal)
18 MASTER OF HOUNDS (Kingmambo)
19 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
20 DECISIVE MOMENT (With Distinction)
21 FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy)

"Soldat Stamps Ticket" - Derby Top 21 for February 28th.

SOLDAT made a nice move in the Fountain of Youth, jumping from post position #1, to take the early lead into the clubhouse turn. He never looked back, stamping himself as a legitimate Derby contender.
The front running style was reminiscent of THE FACTOR, another War Front colt.

Soldat wins the Fountain of Youth. Photo: Joe Ganley/EquiSport Photos 1/1000 @ f//4, iso 500, 200mm

Soldat, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Alan Garcia, won for the first time on a fast dirt track. A point that had raised a few question marks.
“Going into the race, I wasn’t concerned about that at all. He’s always trained extremely well over a fast track, but it is nice to finally get it in print that he likes it fast,” McLaughlin said the day after the race.

 So what I'm trying to figure out, from my Monday morning quarterback chair, is why do I have Soldat at #5 and The Factor at #21? Both colts, graduated from Allowance company, to won in gate to wire fashion in their first Stakes race.
The big question is the pedigree... can the War Front colts make the classic distance.
Soldat's performance was certainly the more visually impressive in winning the Fountain of Youth, setting reasonable fractions and drawing away in the stretch. The Factor, in contrast, set suicidal early splits, and just held on at the wire to a fast closing SWAY AWAY in the San Vicente.
We would hope for the question to be answered in the next starts by these two, Soldat is bound for the Florida Derby, while The Factor's next start appears to be the Sunland Derby. Hmm... will the Sunland Derby really tell us anything?

GOURMET DINNER also proved he belongs in the Derby conversation with a nice 2nd place in the FOY under Ramon Dominguez. Having won the Delta Jackpot Stakes, and accumulating enough graded earnings last year, one could only wonder if the qualifying criteria should be changed. But much to the credit of trainer Steve Standridge, the Trippi colt has shown up to gamely challenge his peers. 

TO HONOR AND SERVE seemed to get enough out of the race to continue forwardly. With already plenty of graded earnings, the son of Bernardini made good use of his first start since the Remson last November. He appeared in good form finishing 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, ridden by John Velazquez.

To Honor and Serve finished 3rd in Fountain of Youth. Photo: Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos 1/1000 @ f/4, iso 640, 140mm

DERBY TRAIL TOP 21
Rank Horse (Sire)
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
3 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
4 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
5 SOLDAT (War Front)
6 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
7 GOURMET DINNER (Trippi)
8 JAYCITO (Victory Gallop)
9 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
10 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
11 SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex)
12 ARCHARCHARCH (Arch)
13 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
14 ASTROLOGY (AP Indy)
15 ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie)
16 TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road)
17 FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy)
18 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)
19 WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid)
20 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
21 THE FACTOR (War Front)

That's it for now... mw.

"Oh Brethren.. Where Art Thou?" - Derby Top 25 for Febraury 14th

BRETHREN, in winning the Sam F Davis Stakes, was the only Derby Top 20 horse that moved forward on the Trail this week. A half brother to last year's Derby winner Super Saver, the 3-year-old son of Distorted Humor easily dispatched an outclassed field.

Brethren, purple cap, dusts the field coming out of the turn, coasting to a win in the Sam F. Davis. (Photo: Wendy Wooley/EquiSport Photos, 1/1600 @ f/5, iso 1000, 500mm)

BRETHREN delayed the start momentarily by loading poorly into the gate, and then broke late from post 10, giving his rivals a couple of jumps. But he easily settled into a stalking 2nd place position behind Ribo Bobo by the time the field had rounded the clubhouse turn.

Brethren, extreme outside, breaks poorly from gate. (Photo: Matt Wooley/EquiSport Photos, 1/1600 @f/6.3, iso 800, 35mm)

Trainer Todd Pletcher watched the race from Gulfstream Park, and said after the race, “He didn’t break great but he recovered quickly, settled into a good rhythm down the backside and went impressively from there. Obviously we have some things to work on at the gate but all in all I thought it was a great effort.”

Eclipse winning jockey Ramon Dominguez, who scored a hat trick in winning all three stakes races on the card, eventually coasted Brethren to an easy score in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis.

Brethren cruised for home under Ramon Dominguez. (Photo: Matt Wooley/EquiSport Photos, 1/2000 @ f/4.5, iso 1250, 300mm)

"He won it like a good horse should," Dominguez said in recapping the race. "We set up and relaxed just off the lead  in the first turn and I was able to wait down the backstretch. I asked him in the turn and he came away very nicely. I took a look on both sides in mid-stretch and there was nothing coming so I was able to wrap up on him going to the wire and out. The distance was no problem for him at all."

Still, one has to wonder what Brethren got out of the race that was not really much more that a $225,000 workout against an outclassed field. His earnings of $120,000 for the race puts him solidly in the Derby field for now. But, will Brethren will be back here to challenge stablemate Uncle Mo in the Tampa Bay Derby March 12th. It's doubtful.
 “We talked about him having only two races before the Derby," said Pletcher, "and this puts us in the position we want to be. It gives us some latitude. We got some graded earnings if we only want to run him once more but this didn’t look like a particularly taxing race either. Where he goes next depends upon a lot of different variables, including where some of our other 3-year-olds wind up going.”

Not that Tapizar (Robert Lewis S.) or Comma To The Top (El Camino Real) needed to post a win, but those two both faded badly coming for home.
So what was going on with TAPIZAR in the Robert Lewis? Garrett Gomez had his hands full. The unruly 3-year-old was rank all the way down the front side, settled reluctantly on the back, but there was nothing left when heading for home.

Tapizar proved to be a handful in the Robert Lewis. (Photo: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos, 1/1600 @ f/3.5, iso 160, 400mm)

ANTHONY'S CROSS, meanwhile, prevailed in a thrilling stretch dual over RIVETING REASON.

Anthony's Cross, inside, prevails over Riveting Reason. (Photo: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos, 1/1600 @ f/3.5, iso 160, 400mm)

Trainer Eoin Harty had Anthony's Cross cross entered in the El Camino Real, but opted for the Robert Lewis. "With the exception of Tapizar, the rest of the field was unproven, a bunch of turf horses. We didn't know if we'd win (with Tapizar in the field), but we thought we'd run a good race," Harty said.
The next major stepping stone for Anthony's Cross in the quest for the "Preakness 5.5" bonus would be the April 3rd Santa Anita Derby. "I've got to decide whether to give him one more start before the Santa Anita Derby or just sit and wait," Harty said. "It's a long time between now and then so it takes some serious consideration.”

Also making a move this week was SILVER MEDALLION, winner of the El Camino Real. In a well timed move by jockey Russell Baze, the Steve Asmussen trained son of Badge of Silver fired just in time to clip Jakesam at the wire.
"He was calm and very relaxed today," said Baze, "I was a little concerned he might be sick because he was so calm going to the gate. He's a nice little horse to ride."

The "WORD". Top 25 (or so) Kentucky Derby Trail.
Rank Horse Sire
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
3 DIALED IN (Mineshaft)
4 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
5 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
6 STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini)
7 JAYCITO (Victory Gallop)
8 ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie)
9 SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver)
10 SOLDAT (War Front)
11 WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid)
12 RIVETING REASON (Fusaichi Pegasus)
13 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
14 ASTROLOGY (AP Indy)
15 TAPIZAR (Tapit)
16 COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie)
17 TIZ BLESSED (Tiznow)
18 SHACKLEFORD (Forestry)
19 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
20 GOURMET DINNER (Trippi)
21 SWEET DUCKY (Pulpit)
22 THE FACTOR (War Front)
23 MACHEN (Distorted Humor)
24 MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno)
25 ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex)
26 CASPER'S TOUCH (Touch Gold)
27 TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road)

More later.. mw

"Up & Comers" on the Derby Trail

Happy Birthday to all of the Derby contenders! Everybody turned 3 on New Year's Day!
Okay, for that matter, all thoroughbreds had a birthday on January 1st.

The Kentucky Derby is still 4 months away, and now it's time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Already, a few runners are assured a spot in the starting gate for this May's "Run For The Roses" based on current earnings, but a few are just now making their presence known.
One promising now 3 year old, in particular, is certain to be a factor.

The Factor, Rafael Bejarano up, breaks his maiden at Santa Anita Park 12.26.2010. Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos

 A Bob Baffert trainee, "The Factor", may have made the biggest slash coming into the New Year. Running under the colors of part owner George Bolton, The Factor broke maiden at Santa Anita the day after Christmas in track record setting fashion. The son of War Front posted an eye popping 102 Beyer figure. Baffert said of the colt after the race, "He didn't even take a deep breath". 
Baffert admitted the colt's name was inspired by Bill O'Reilly's Fox News program.
Look for The Factor to move right into Stakes company to get started on the Derby Trail.

Another Up & Comer, To Honor and Serve, proved much the best in winning the Remson Stakes, November 27 at Aqueduct.

To Honor and Serve, John Velazquez up, wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct 11/27/10Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos

Trained by Bill Mott for Live Oak Plantation, the Bernardini colt came into this race off of a 4 length win in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes November 6th. Said Mott after the Remson, "I thought in the Nashua it looked like he won a little easier, but this was another eighth of a mile. Being in a two-turn race might have been slightly confusing to him. As with any horse like him, we’ll nominate him for everything in case there’s a hiccup anywhere.”

One more 3 year old to make note of is Brethren. A half brother to last year's Derby winner Super Saver,  the colt won an Allowance at Churchill in convincing fashion November 27th.

Brethren, Garrett Gomez up, wins an allowance at Churchill Downs 11.27.2010 Wendy Wooley/EquiSport Photos.

A son of Distorted Humor, and owned by Winstar Farm, Brethren coasted to an easy win under Garrett Gomez for trainer Todd Pletcher. “He came out of (the race) in excellent shape. I thought that was a big effort from him from an outside post,” Pletcher said. “He veered out a little bit at the start but was able to put himself in a good position and kicked on turning for home. All in all, I though it was a pretty impressive race.”

Here is the rest of the "Derby Word" for the New Year. A lot will shuffle between now and the first Saturday in May as the Real Contenders make themselves known.

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie)
2 COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie)
3 TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini)
4 BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (Officer)
5 SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway)
6 JB'S THUNDER (Thunder Gulch)
7 THE FACTOR (War Front)
8 ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones)
9 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor)
10 JP'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)

And on the Distaff side, a look at the Oaks Fillies that have shown promise.

Rank Horse (Sire)
1 KATHMANBLU (Bluegrass Cat)
2 AWESOME FEATHER (Awesome of Course)
3 R HEAT LIGHTNING (Trippi)
4 MORE THAN REAL (More Than Ready)
5 TURBULENT DESCENT (Congrats)
6 WICKEDLY PERFECT (Congrats)
7 DELIGHTFUL MARY (Limehouse)
8 WINTER MEMORIES (El Prado)
9 A Z WARRIOR (Bernardini)
10 FASTATION (Valid Expectations)

More later... mw